Published | 29 June 2025 | By Aditya
The Share Market concluded the week on a high note, extending its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on Friday, June 27, 2025. This sustained rally, fueled by a confluence of positive factors, sets a cautiously bullish tone for the final trading day of June, Monday, June 30, 2025. Investors are brimming with renewed optimism, supported by consistent Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investor (DII) inflows, alongside favorable global cues.
A Look Back: Weekly Market Recap (June 27, 2025)
The past week demonstrated robust performance across key indices:
- Sensex: Gained 303.03 points (+0.36%) to close at 84,058.90, marking its first close above 84,000 since October 2024 and a new multi-month high.
- Nifty 50: Climbed 88.80 points (+0.35%) to end at 25,637.80.
- Bank Nifty: Continued its impressive record-setting spree, finishing at 57,443.90, up 0.41%.
- India VIX: Cooled off further by 1.60% to 12.39, signaling a reduction in market volatility.
Top Performers: JIO Financial (+3.5%), Asian Paints (+3.0%), and Apollo Hospitals (+2.9%) led the charge. Heavyweights like ICICI Bank (+1.6%) and Reliance (+1.3%) also contributed significantly to the upward movement.Underperformers: HDFC Bank (-0.34%) and Infosys (-0.5%) experienced mild profit booking.
Global & Domestic Tailwinds
Several factors are bolstering investor confidence:
- Easing Geopolitical Tensions: A reduction in global uncertainties has provided a conducive environment for risk-on sentiment.
- Strong Asian Market Cues: Positive performance in regional markets often spills over into the domestic market.
- Optimism for US Federal Reserve Rate Cut: Hopes of an upcoming rate cut by the US Federal Reserve are driving global liquidity and appetite for emerging markets like India.
- Strengthening Indian Rupee: The Rupee recorded its best weekly performance in over two years, indicating improving macroeconomic stability.
Also Read –Previous Maket Analysis
Index-Wise Outlook for Monday, June 30, 2025
Nifty 50 Prediction
The Nifty 50 has seen a significant rally of approximately 844 points (3.4%) over the last four sessions, backed by strong FII/DII flows. However, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now nearing overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of some profit booking.
- Support: 25,359 / 25,187
- Resistance: 25,917 / 26,089
- Strategy: Maintain long positions but keep a close eye on the closing stop-loss at 25,338. Be prepared for a potential slowdown in momentum as the index approaches resistance levels. A ‘buy-on-dips’ approach might be suitable at current levels.
Bank Nifty Prediction: Scaling New Heights
Bank Nifty continues its robust uptrend, leading the market’s charge. Performance from IndusInd Bank (+2.58%), ICICI Bank (+1.61%), and SBI (+1.05%) fueled its ascent, despite minor weakness in HDFC Bank and Axis Bank. The index’s broad-based resilience, with 7 out of 12 constituents advancing, signals sustained strength in the financial sector.
- Support: 56,895 / 56,555
- Resistance: 57,993 / 58,332
- Strategy: Hold long trades with a closing stop-loss at 56,663. Watch for temporary profit booking near resistance zones, but the overall trend remains positive.
Sensex Prediction: Selective Buying Driving Gains
The BSE Sensex added 303.03 points, primarily driven by selective buying in key constituents. Gains from ICICI Bank, Reliance, and Hindustan Unilever outweighed losses in HDFC Bank, Infosys, and Maruti Suzuki. The fact that 18 out of 30 constituents advanced points to cautious optimism among investors.
- Support: 83,191 / 82,655
- Resistance: 84,926 / 85,463
- Strategy: Maintain a long bias with a stop-loss at 83,050. Be aware that profit-taking is possible near resistance levels, particularly in IT stocks.
FINNIFTY Prediction: Banking Plays in Focus
The Nifty Financial Services Index (FINNIFTY) closed at 27,344.05, up 95.65 points (+0.35%). Strong performances from ICICI Bank, HDFC AMC, and SBI contributed to its gains. While some weakness was observed in HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Bajaj Finance, the overall positive close indicates continued investor interest in the financial sector.
- Support: 27,162 / 26,980 / 26,876
- Resistance: 27,448 / 27,552 / 27,734
- Strategy: Stay long with a closing stop-loss at 26,928. The sentiment for FINNIFTY remains moderately positive, with a clear focus on banking sector plays.
Conclusion: Cautious Optimism Prevails
For Monday, June 30, 2025, the Indian stock market is expected to open on a cautiously bullish note. The strong closing on Friday, coupled with supportive global and domestic factors, suggests that the bulls are likely to attempt to maintain their momentum. However, with key indices approaching overbought territories, traders should remain vigilant for potential short-term corrections or consolidation.
The medium-term trend remains bullish, making it a favorable time for positional trades, provided investors adhere strictly to defined stop-loss levels and actively monitor key resistance zones. Banking and financial stocks are expected to continue showing strength, while some profit booking may be seen in the IT sector.
Disclaimer: This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.